Whether progressive Democrats and nonpartisans take the seats they need in the Nebraska Legislature to block a 33-vote Republican supermajority will largely be decided by a half dozen races in the Omaha area. And the battleground does appear to favor the progressives, according to interviews with insiders from both parties and recent voting patterns.
Republicans didn’t even mount a challenger in District 6, the open west central Omaha seat being vacated by the term-limited Sen. Machaela Cavanaugh, the sister of state senator and current candidate for U.S. Congress John Cavanaugh.
The district has been trending Democratic, with Kamala Harris carrying it by more than 15 points in 2024.
There is also no GOP challenger in the strongly progressive Benson-area District 8, where nonpartisan progressive Sen. Megan Hunt is term limited, or in Lincoln Districts 28 and 46.
Democrats are also seen as in a strong position to reelect incumbents John Fredrickson in west Omaha District 20 and George Dungan in Lincoln’s District 26.
Both won tight battles in 2022 — Fredrickson prevailing by less than 100 votes. But both districts are also trending Democratic, with Kamala Harris beating Trump in each by more than 10 points in 2024. Fredrickson, who faces a primary challenge from Republicans Chris Anderson and Dan Witt, is also buoyed by bipartisan backers and business support.
Operatives on both sides agree the best shot for a GOP flip is northwest Omaha’s District 10, the open seat being vacated by term-limited Sen. Wendy DeBoer.
Eight years ago when the seat was last open, Democrat DeBoer won by just 105 votes, and conservatives feel they have a solid candidate this year in Rebecca Rens. But the district landscape now appears to favor Democrats and their candidate, Cindy Johnson.
Harris carried the district by 8 points in 2024. District voters also backed progressives in recent U.S. Senate, House and gubernatorial elections. One Republican operative acknowledged it’s an uphill climb but did not rule out a flip. Democratic operative Barry Rubin said he doesn’t think it will be particularly close.
Meanwhile, Republicans are playing defense in a number of Omaha-area districts.
Sen. Merv Riepe in District 12 is widely seen as the most vulnerable Republican. He’s the only GOP incumbent running in a district that Democrats carried in the 2024 presidential race, Harris winning by 2 points there.
But Riepe, who will turn 84 just after the primary, also is familiar to voters. He’s running for the fourth time in the district he won handily in 2014 and by 5 points in 2022. And the independence he’s shown on the Blue Dot and other big issues could help him with some swing voters.
Three Democrats are challenging Riepe in the primary: Thomas Kastrup, Christy Knorr and Robin Richards. Richards, a candidate four years ago, is seeking a rematch, but faces the added hurdle of running as a write-in.
Progressives are also enthused about their prospects in northwest Omaha’s District 18, an open seat where Republican Sen. Christy Armendariz declined to seek reelection. Democrats feel they have a strong candidate, and a golden opportunity, in a district Trump carried by less than 2 points.
Democrat Jess Goldoni faces off in the District 18 primary against two Republicans, Taylor Royal and Derek Schwartz. The GOP is already throwing everything at Goldoni, attacking her in flyers from both the left and the right.
An open District 14 seat created by term limits on Republican Sen. John Arch presents another opportunity for Democrats in Sarpy County. Republicans Bill Bowes and Jay Jackson and Democrat SuAnn Witt are contending in the primary in the district Trump carried by 9 points.
Progressives also have hopes of mounting strong campaigns against incumbent Republicans Brad von Gillern in west Omaha’s District 4 and Sen. Rick Holdcroft of Bellevue in District 36.
In District 4, von Gillern faces a rematch with nonpartisan Cindy Maxwell-Ostdiek, who he beat by 5 points four years ago. But von Gillern also now has the power of incumbency and fundraising advantage in the district Trump carried by 6 points.
Holdcroft is challenged by Democrat Darin Tompkins in a district Trump carried by more than 20 points.
6 Comments
You know, it’s nice that Flatwater ran two articles on local politics on the same day. And it’s even better that you apparently threw out the typical Flatwater style guide that requires every article to open and close with an emotion leveraging personal anecdote.
But you need to just come right out and say the quiet part out loud. Riepe is NOT an actual Republican and never has been one. On every major issue he has betrayed his base voters who elected him and voted exactly the way a Democrat would have in those situations. As such, it doesn’t actually matter if Riepe wins or loses, because a leftist who votes like a Democrat will get that seat either way. This is also the biggest reason he is likely to lose. Republicans have no reason to support him and Democrats may as well vote for their own candidate, so why would anyone vote for Riepe?
Actually, the only reason I can see to vote for Riepe is if you are a huge fan of late actor Julian Beck and you are hoping Riepe eventually decides to cosplay as the evil preacher from Poltergeist 2. Considering the villain from that movie was a snappier dresser than Riepe is, this is probably his best bet for improving his public image.
Truth….and funny
Conservative-and-mostly-male (frequently wealthy? or able to pay their bills with just one job? or able to afford/live on the $12,000 Nebraska state legislature salary), likely caucasian and often ‘religious/Christian’ voters like yourself, Reverend, getting to decide how this state is run on every issue is now not a total given.
At least Mr. Riepe (who has no lady parts) did not cave on the already limited Nebraska state abortion laws. Males should not even be able to vote on this issue, BTW. Not. Your. Body. It’s between females (chldren: 11, 12, 13, 14 yrs old for some examples, as in the case of students I’ve known, so it’s rape no matter what you think) and a doctor.
Where is the responsibility ($$ and time) for the sperm donors in any unwanted pregnancy?
Your religious views, if you are swayed by them and determined to foist them on everyone who doesn’t share your beliefs, are just that: yours.
Whether Riepe’s a “snappy dresser” or not, he’s 84 yrs old: time to perhaps move on, let younger candidates put in the time. Hopefully those who don’t proselytize or make less-than-important, “witty” judgements and opinions, and “clever” name drops.
Yo Momma, first off, learn to use the “reply” button instead of firing off a new thread that was obviously designed to attack someone specific.
Second, learn to use paragraphs. They make political rants slightly less painful to read.
Third, using the name of the bad guy from the movie was part of the joke. You didn’t get it (which is probably to be expected) but you did make assumptions about my gender, age, race, income level, etc. And there is an old adage about what assumptions do…
Which, lastly, brings us to your actual argument… Well, you don’t appear to have an argument to speak of beyond hurling insults and firing off opinions on unrelated topics. So that would be the end of that!
Yo Momma, (not yo momma, Kofi Annan/Reverend Kane – yes, I “got it”/Clever Pseudonymizationer) first off, learn to use the “reply” button (that was a good point, so I’m using it) instead of firing off a new thread that was obviously designed to attack someone specific (as, your attack of Flatwater?? Nope – just continuing to decry any support of any republicans in this state and state legislature, who make fateful decisions for more than half of it’s (female) population, especially with healthcare, safe abortion access, benefits for women & children, mental health support, support for special needs people…)
Second, learn to use paragraphs. They make political rants slightly less painful to read. (submitted it that way – with paragraphs – but didn’t come out that way. SO sorry, Kofi!)
Third, using the name of the bad guy from the movie was part of the joke. You didn’t get it (which is probably to be expected) but you did make assumptions about my gender, age, race, income level, etc. And there is an old adage about what assumptions do…(nothing derogatory or condescending in your reply, right Reverend Kofi?)
Which, lastly, brings us to your actual argument… Well, you don’t appear to have an argument to speak of beyond hurling insults and firing off opinions on unrelated topics. So that would be the end of that! (No hurling insults on your end…!? And your point was…to show you are a…clever man; maybe just a debator at heart.)
That was even less readable than the last post. If you quote someone, you might consider using quotation marks.
At any rate, abortion wasn’t even mentioned in this article. You were the one who decided to fire off a rant about that topic… and literally nobody else here has anything to say to you on that issue. You VERY clearly have your mind made up about that, and while I could point out that your view isn’t actually legal much less binding on anyone other than you, what would be the point of doing so? You clearly won’t care, nor was abortion even the topic of the conversation.
The actual topic of both the article and my original reply to it was Riepe’s election chances. And nobody has yet given me any reason to vote for the guy, other than he might make a good antagonist in a horror film (as long as his role had minimal speaking parts, as he isn’t very good at that either).